Division I Class 3A First Round
#4 Hamilton (4-6) @ #1 Covington (8-2)
The power running attack of the Covington Chargers has found its rhythm. Combined with a solid defense, the Chargers are poised to make a deep run in the playoffs. After losing the season opener to the Munford Cougars, Covington won seven straight games. The Chargers’ two losses came to Munford and Haywood who are a combined 20-0 this season. The Hamilton Wildcats compiled a 3-3 league record. In their wins, the Wildcats averaged 26.5 points. The most points given up by Hamilton this past season was 44 points to Melrose. The Wildcats have a solid defense full of athletes.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Covington 79%, Hamilton 21%
#3 Millington (6-4) @ #2 Memphis East (5-5)
The East Mustangs are opportunistic, winning five games in Region 8-3A play to earn the No. 2 seed. In those victories, the Mustangs gave up an average of 11.5 points. But when East faced the likes of Arlington, Fairley, Melrose, Sheffield and st. Benedict, those teams scored more than 38 points.
The Millington Trojans’ offense is clicking at the right time scoring 88 points in the final two games. The Trojan defense is solid, holding five opponents under 14 points.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Millington 61%, Memphis East 39%
Division I Class 5A First Round
#4 Clarksville Northeast (5-5) @ #1 Munford (10-0)
The Eagles are battle tested as they prepare to make the trip to Tipton County to face the unbeaten Munford Cougars. Clarksville Northeast finished 1-4 in Region 7-5A.
The Cougars scored 28 points in the season opener at Covington. Then Munford’s offense picked up the production with outputs of 44, 61, 54, 60, 53 and 42 points in those wins. The other three victories the Cougars tallied more than 30 points.
The Munford defense will be the key for a long playoff run. The Cougar defenders are the underrated part of this undefeated collection.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Munford 87%, Clarksville Northeast 13%
Division I Class 6A First Round
#4 Centennial (8-2) @ #1 Bartlett (8-2)
The Centennial Cougars are 9 points away from being unedited. A 17-14 loss to Independence and 15-9 slugfest defeat to Brentwood dropped the Cougars to the No. 4 seed. The Cougars won six straight before losing to Brentwood last Friday night. In short, Centennial is not a traditional four-seed.
The Bartlett Panthers are owners of a five-game winning streak. Bartlett scored 303 points on the season and has the offensive firepower to beat any team.
The Panthers’ only loss to a Tennessee team was 17-16 to Germantown. Bartlett has seen quality play taking on Hoover (Ala.). This might be the best matchup across the state for the First Round.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Bartlett 51%, Centennial 49%
#3 Collierville (8-2) @ #2 Brentwood (7-3)
These two proud programs will play each other for the first time. The Collierville Dragons started the season 7-0 extending their regular-season win streak to 17. Then Collierville suffered injuries and dropped games to Houston and Bartlett. The Dragons ended the regular season on a positive note beating Arlington 21-7 to close out the regular season. The Dragons have a defense that only gave up 106 points. The Bruins are pretty good on defense too, only allowing 130 points in 10 games.
Only Father Ryan, Ravenwood and Beech can claim wins over Brentwood. By the numbers, Collierville’s offense has a slight edge scoring 298 points compared to Brentwood’s 169. If the Dragons can solve the Bruins’ defensive scheme early, Collierville can advance.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Brentwood 54%, Collierville 46%
#3 Independence (5-5) @ #2 Houston (8-2)
The Eagles will land in Shelby County this Friday after suffering a 38-14 defeat to Ravenwood. Independence has given up 233 points while scoring 199 points. The trend for the Eagles this past season was losing big and winning when their backs were against the wall.
The Mustangs scored the most points in their Region with 369 points. Houston also boasts a good defense only allowing 133 points. Playoff bound Briarcrest and Bartlett tallied 63 of those points in the only two losses for Houston. Don’t be shocked if Houston can slip past Independence and make a deep run in the playoffs.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Houston 72%, Independence 28%
#4 Germantown (8-2) @ #1 Ravenwood (6-4)
How does a No. 1 seed have a 6-4 record? The Raptors scheduled MBA, Oakland, Centennial and Pope John Paul II. Ravenwood has seen a tough or meaningful matchup each week and managed to go 4-1 in league play.
The Raptors had the best offense in Region 7-6A scoring 326 points. But Ravenwood has allowed 207 points.
How do you go 8-2 overall but finish fourth in the league? After starting 5-0, the Red Devils were tripped up by Houston and Collierville. While scoring 309 points with a solid running game, Germantown only gave up 130 points. The Mustangs and Dragons scored 55 of those points. Germantown has three shutouts including the final two wins of the regular season.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Ravenwood 57%, Germantown 43%
Division II-A First Round
West #5 Tipton-Rosemark (2-6) @ East #2 MTCS (8-2)
Injuries derailed the Tipton-Rosemark Academy season early. The Rebels started the season 0-6 while trying to heal. Getting some pieces back, TRA was able to rally with wins over Harding Academy and FACS to snatch up a playoff berth.
The Middle Tennessee Christian School Cougars started 1-1 and pulled off seven in a row. In the battle for the East championship, Friendship Christian beat MTCS 28-14 for the title.
The Cougars have the offensive power scoring 321 points. Playing at home, MTCS has another advantage with TRA having to travel four hours.
CHANCE OF WINNING: MTCS 81%, TRA 19%
Division II-AA First Round
West #3 ECS (4-5) vs. East #3 Silverdale (7-3) (@ Lipscomb Academy)
The Eagles earned a playoff spot by beating St. George’s 10-7 in the regular season finale. ECS wins a showdown with Silverdale. In the Eagles’ four wins, the trend was good defense holding three of those opponents under 20 points. ECS averaged 29.75 points in its victories. While the defeats have been by double digits, the Eagles were competitive in most of those games.
The Silverdale Baptist Academy Seahawks went 4-2 in league. In 10 games, the Seahawks have scored 283 points. In five of their seven wins, Silverdale scored 35 or more points.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Silverdale 68%, ECS 32%
Division II-AAA First Round
West #4 Christian Brothers (6-4) @ East #3 Knoxville Catholic (3-6)
The CBHS Purple Wave has a point differential of plus 109 points. To close out the 2022 season, CBHS outscored Memphis Central and St. Benedict 105-27. The Wave ready to crush into the competition this November?
Knoxville Catholic has dropped four games in a row. The Fighting Irish came out shining with a 3-2 record. But in the four-game slide, Knoxville dropped two games by less than a touchdown. The Fighting Irish racked up 239 points but gave up 310 points.
CHANCE OF WINNING: CBHS 53%, Knoxville Catholic 47%
West #6 St. Benedict (2-8) @ East #3 McCallie (8-2)
The St. Benedict Eagles are trending in a positive direction with two wins this past season. St. Benedict did remain winless in league play. The Eagles’ defense has to have its best performance of the season to have a chance. The Eagles have surrendered 474 points.
McCallie has tallied 356 points on offense. This is a recipe for the Blue Tornado to do some damage. McCallie has won four in a row to end the season scoring 28 or more points in each game.
CHANCE OF WINNING: McCallie 82%, St. Benedict 18%
East #6 Father Ryan (2-8) @ West #3 MUS (7-3)
The MUS Owls had a reality check last Friday courtesy of Brentwood Academy 35-7. MUS won four in a row prior to that regular-season finale. The Owls will come into the playoffs with a chip on their shoulders. MUS has a solid defense only giving up 136 points. The offense can be productive scoring 28 or more points four times.
Father Ryan went winless in league play but earned two impressive wins over Brentwood and Cane Ridge. The Figthin’ Irish have dropped six in a row giving up an average of 43.6 points.
CHANCE OF WINNING: MUS 71%, Father Ryan 29%
West #5 Briarcrest (5-5) @ East #4 Pope John Paul (7-3)
The Briarcrest Saints haven’t skipped a beat offensively compared to last season. But the defense gave up 219 points during 2022. In three of the five losses, Saints opponents reached the 38-point mark. Against rivals CBHS and MUS, the Saints fell 35-29 in those two games. Briarcrest’s best win of the season was 29-28 over Houston.
Pope John Paul II can score with the best of them tallying 304 points, but the Knights have allowed 293 points this past season.
CHANCE OF WINNING: Pope John Paul II 63%, Briarcrest 37%
